Not ‘winning’ the Somalia dirty war in the short run. A war of attrition and terror is indicated.
Here’s the link to the Libya report of equal detail to the snippet of Somali mayhem shown below

Threat Forecast and Guidance

There remains a specific threat against foreign nationals and organisations operating inside Somalia from both criminal and terrorist forces. Somalia remains at high risk of violence in the vicinity of major population centres and roads. Specifically;

· Northern Region:

· Caution is advised in the vicinity of Gaalkacyo; Garowe; Bossaso and Hargeysa.
· We would recommend avoiding the border between Puntland and Somaliland in the Sool region.

· Central Region:

· Caution is advised in the vicinity of Belet Weyne and Jowhar.
· Avoid all travel to Ceel Buur; Bulo Burto and Jalalaqsi;

· Southern Region:

· Caution is advised in the vicinity of Baidoa; Kismayo and other population centres;

· Avoid all travel to cities under Al-Shabaab control, as well as Waajid; Belet Xaawo; Marka and Afgooye

. We would also advise all organisations operating in Somalia to exercise the highest levels of security. All facilities should be hardened to resist terrorist attack, with perimeter security and safe areas in place, measures should also include an adequate guard force and hardening of the buildings structure to resist explosive attacks.

· Movement in country should be limited to necessary travel only and should be risk assessed to ensure it is necessary. Movement where possible should be with armed protection and in adequately protected vehicles.

· If possible movement by air is considered preferable to road movements;

· Meetings should be conducted in secure facilities only and never in places accessible to the public. Al-Shabaab has demonstrated its ability to conduct strikes targeted at security and international personnel in public areas.

· In the wake of a recent Al-Shabaab threat we would also recommend international organisations to apply these same security measures to local staff.

· While Al-Shabaab is the highest profile threat, it should also be remembered that even in areas outside of Al-Shabaab’s control, the threat of clan related violence as well as criminal activity should not be underestimated.

· The lack of government control over large swathes of Somalia allows criminal gangs free reign. Criminal activity ranges from illegal tolls on roads to the kidnap of staff. The non-payment of government employees and military personnel by both the Federal Government and the autonomous administrations directly affects the security situation. Unpaid SNA personnel have been directly linked to criminal acts including setting up illegal checkpoints on roads; robbery and kidnapping.
The report contains incident details such as:
MOGADISHU Security Analysis

Fighting this week in Mogadishu saw Al-Shabaab’s campaign regaining momentum following last week’s pause. The assassination campaign continued, with Al-Shabaab Amniyat teams assassinating a number of targets, ranging from civilian businessmen to a senior Judge. In addition to the assassinations that were conducted, Al-Shabaab again demonstrated its ability and willingness to operate openly in Mogadishu with militia attacks on Police Stations in Yaaqshiid and Heliwa.

More worryingly 2 incidents also exposed either the continuing misconduct of the security forces and the general inability to ensure the safety and security of Mogadishu.

· The SNP opened fire on an aid distribution point on 13.06, killing 1 guard and then looting the food aid. Corruption and criminal activity by members of the SNP and SNA has been seen before, however the Federal Government had made assertions that it would not happen again. The incident on 13.06, along with the activities of SNA personnel elsewhere in Somalia make a lie of the Federal Governments statements.

· On 14.06 a landmine explosion in Xamar JaabJab claimed the life of 1 child and injured 2 others. Somalia has a problem with unexploded ordnance from its decades long civil war; however the Federal Government has previously stated that Mogadishu had been cleared of all mines, as this incident shows there is still UXO in the city.
Incident details for the rural regions of Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland are also reported in detail.

Full report in PDF Format. Report for Libya

From MRAP to scrap… McClatchy reports:
Pentagon chopping up $50 BILLION dollars worth of allegedly mine-proof vehicles

BAGRAM, Afghanistan — Faced with an epidemic of deadly roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. military officials ordered up a fleet of V-hulled 16-ton armored behemoths in 2007 to help protect American soldiers and Marines.

At a cost of $1 million each, the ugly tan beasts known as MRAPS have saved countless lives and absorbed or deflected thousands of insurgent bomb blasts in teeming cities, desert flats and rutted mountain roadways. The lumbering vehicles are so beloved that soldiers have scrawled notes of thanks on their armor.

So why would the U.S. military suddenly start chopping up as many as 2,000 of the vehicles and selling them as scrap?
It’s OBVIOUS if they worked at all to protect our troops it should be termed “Barely”, and perhaps ‘kept them alive’ but not necessarily in ONE PIECE. I suppose they did better than the totally unarmored HumVees that US soldiers generally rode around in until it was belatedly realized the Iraqis WERE NOT ‘greeting us with flowers’.

Blown MRAP image from January 11 2010 Cabale News Service report:

In the new year of our war on Afghanistan, over the weekend the Taliban killed three more American soldiers in Helmand province and another in a roadside bomb attack. He was driving an allegedly mine-proof MRAP vehicle. That makes 10 Americans dead in the first 10 days of the year.
…where it’s also reported
(see lower pic and go here for huge/readable)

Meanwhile, (the now-resigned-in-disgrace) General Stanley McChrystal says we can still win in Afghanistan…. Here’s the strategy…
Last but not least, that day’s Cabale News Service report included this little piece of now scrapped Yemen/Somalia diplomacy nostalgia:

In Yemen, the president is now proposing talks with rebel elements and ‘al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula’ and US president Obama rules out sending US troops to Yemen or Somalia. More.
"Usually after commando raids against terrorist targets, the leaks flow like a fine triumphalist wine. We hear just enough detail of high-level secret meetings to emphasize that everything that worked was actually the president’s idea. We may get a photo or two indicating that while considering the raids everyone was looking extremely serious.

But that’s not what happened in the wake of the (Libya & Somalia) raids this weekend

While this weekend’s raids didn’t exactly “screw the pooch,”… …they did not go according to plan (militarily OR diplomatically)."

The Power Paradox: Why America can only be great by being unexceptional, David Rothkopf - Foreign Policy


An assortment of reports about the taking of Libya’s bogus government ‘official by either the “Revolutionary Operations Chamber" (google search… nothing but news), or the “Brigade for the Fight against Crime" (ibid):

Any way you look at it, you’re looking at country that was a regional development economic powerhouse and financier turned into a near-lawless state PERHAPS more stable than Somalia… And like Somalia, the global community can ‘thank’ NATO.

Libyan prime minister seized by armed men - al-Jazeera

Libyan PM Ali Zeidan detained by militia - BBC

Libyan PM briefly held by gunmen angry at U.S. Qaeda capture - Reuters

Libyan PM freed after capture by former rebels over US raid - Russia Today


Abu_M (Twitter: abu_m), US citizen Jihadi in Somalia with a few words about his group’s and “al-Shabab” involvement, or non-involvement, in the Nairobi Kenya WestGate shopping mall attack.

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