Not ‘winning’ the Somalia dirty war in the short run. A war of attrition and terror is indicated.
Here’s the link to the Libya report of equal detail to the snippet of Somali mayhem shown below
Threat Forecast and GuidanceThe report contains incident details such as:
There remains a specific threat against foreign nationals and organisations operating inside Somalia from both criminal and terrorist forces. Somalia remains at high risk of violence in the vicinity of major population centres and roads. Specifically;
· Northern Region:
· Caution is advised in the vicinity of Gaalkacyo; Garowe; Bossaso and Hargeysa.
· We would recommend avoiding the border between Puntland and Somaliland in the Sool region.
· Central Region:
· Caution is advised in the vicinity of Belet Weyne and Jowhar.
· Avoid all travel to Ceel Buur; Bulo Burto and Jalalaqsi;
· Southern Region:
· Caution is advised in the vicinity of Baidoa; Kismayo and other population centres;
· Avoid all travel to cities under Al-Shabaab control, as well as Waajid; Belet Xaawo; Marka and Afgooye
. We would also advise all organisations operating in Somalia to exercise the highest levels of security. All facilities should be hardened to resist terrorist attack, with perimeter security and safe areas in place, measures should also include an adequate guard force and hardening of the buildings structure to resist explosive attacks.
· Movement in country should be limited to necessary travel only and should be risk assessed to ensure it is necessary. Movement where possible should be with armed protection and in adequately protected vehicles.
· If possible movement by air is considered preferable to road movements;
· Meetings should be conducted in secure facilities only and never in places accessible to the public. Al-Shabaab has demonstrated its ability to conduct strikes targeted at security and international personnel in public areas.
· In the wake of a recent Al-Shabaab threat we would also recommend international organisations to apply these same security measures to local staff.
· While Al-Shabaab is the highest profile threat, it should also be remembered that even in areas outside of Al-Shabaab’s control, the threat of clan related violence as well as criminal activity should not be underestimated.
· The lack of government control over large swathes of Somalia allows criminal gangs free reign. Criminal activity ranges from illegal tolls on roads to the kidnap of staff. The non-payment of government employees and military personnel by both the Federal Government and the autonomous administrations directly affects the security situation. Unpaid SNA personnel have been directly linked to criminal acts including setting up illegal checkpoints on roads; robbery and kidnapping.
MOGADISHU Security AnalysisIncident details for the rural regions of Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland are also reported in detail.
Fighting this week in Mogadishu saw Al-Shabaab’s campaign regaining momentum following last week’s pause. The assassination campaign continued, with Al-Shabaab Amniyat teams assassinating a number of targets, ranging from civilian businessmen to a senior Judge. In addition to the assassinations that were conducted, Al-Shabaab again demonstrated its ability and willingness to operate openly in Mogadishu with militia attacks on Police Stations in Yaaqshiid and Heliwa.
More worryingly 2 incidents also exposed either the continuing misconduct of the security forces and the general inability to ensure the safety and security of Mogadishu.
· The SNP opened fire on an aid distribution point on 13.06, killing 1 guard and then looting the food aid. Corruption and criminal activity by members of the SNP and SNA has been seen before, however the Federal Government had made assertions that it would not happen again. The incident on 13.06, along with the activities of SNA personnel elsewhere in Somalia make a lie of the Federal Governments statements.
· On 14.06 a landmine explosion in Xamar JaabJab claimed the life of 1 child and injured 2 others. Somalia has a problem with unexploded ordnance from its decades long civil war; however the Federal Government has previously stated that Mogadishu had been cleared of all mines, as this incident shows there is still UXO in the city.
Full report in PDF Format. Report for Libya